23% Cut in Social Security Benefits Starts in 2034
Plus, why not to apply your stock strategy to crypto
Ric Edelman: It's Thursday, September 26th. The Social Security Trust Fund, I've been warning you, is facing depletion. Well, now we have new data from the Congressional Budget Office, and they say, that the Social Security Trust Fund will now be depleted in 2034.
This is one year later than CBO's projection last year, and this is a result of the improving economy and the reduction in interest rates, all good news, but let's not get terribly excited. A year ago, they said that the trust fund would be wiped out in 2033. Now they're saying 2034, that's sort of like saying: Well, the Titanic isn't going to sink in a day, it's going to sink in two days. You know, sinking is sinking.
So, we still have a major problem on our hands, it still needs to be fixed, and then frankly, it still needs to be talked about in the presidential campaign season. Here's the issue in case you've been living under a rock or more accurately, haven't been listening to my radio show or podcast at all for the past 10 years.
The Social Security Trust Fund is a key component of the function of the social security system. There is a ton of money in the Social Security Trust Fund right now. And that's because for decades, American workers have been taxed, as we know, on our paychecks, we lose about 12% of our incomes to Social Security. About half of that is paid by us out of our paycheck. The other half is paid out of our employers, who would otherwise have paid that money to us if they didn't have to send it to the Social Security Administration.
So, about 12% of our comp goes to the Social Security Administration. They take that money and they pay out most of it to retirees in the form of monthly benefits. But they don't need all the money to pay all of the money to retirees. They've been able to stuff the excess into a trust fund where it has sat and earned interest for years. But lately, over the past decade or so, they've been paying out more in benefits to retirees than they've been collecting in tax revenue, because the number of workers is going down and the number of retirees is rising, thanks to longevity.
The result is that instead of the trust fund growing every year with additional deposits, it's now being reduced every year due to annual withdrawals because the social security trustees have to take the money out of the trust fund in order to give it to the Social Security Administration so they can send the money to retirees who are expecting their monthly social security checks. At the rate of withdrawals that are being made, the Congressional Budget Office says the trust fund will be fully depleted in 2034. That's 10 years from now. When that happens, Social Security benefits are going to be cut 23% for everybody in America - all retirees, regardless of age or income. And the reason it’s 23% is that the amount of money being collected in taxes from Social Security payroll taxes is only enough to pay 77% of the benefits retirees are currently receiving. That's the only income source for Social Security, the Social Security taxes. If those taxes are only covering 77% of the benefit, then that's the only benefit retirees are going to get.
This is a massive economic and political crisis because more than half of retirees get more than half of their total income from Social Security. They're fully dependent on it for their lifestyles. If that benefit gets cut by 23%, millions of American retirees won't be able to pay their rent or mortgage. They're not going to be able to buy medicine or food, or they're going to have to make choices between them. This is a real, major problem. We can fix it if we address the issue today by addressing a combination of 1) how much are we collecting in tax revenue and 2) how much are we paying out in benefits? How soon should you be eligible to collect benefits and how much are we going to allow those benefits to be?
Congress has to deal with this. If Congress does nothing, it guarantees that in 2034, all beneficiaries get a 23% haircut. It's a problem. The problem is coming. The CBO says the problem is being delayed by a year, but that frankly is small solace. If you're at or near retirement, you need to be thinking about the impact of this on your personal finances.
If you have parents in retirement, you need to be talking about this with them now to ask, what are they going to do if their social security benefits are reduced?
Ric Edelman: I got a question from Ray. He's in New York and here's what he asked: “For years, I've been investing in equities and have stuck to a rule. I sell any stock that is down 25%. My question is about Ethereum. I bought the Ethereum ETF when it first came out and it is hovering at a 25 to 27% loss. I haven't sold it and I haven't added to it. Why should I change my discipline and not sell?”
Well, yeah, Ray. I think you should change your discipline because you're applying a discipline for investing in the stock market to a strategy for investing in the crypto market. The two are totally different. I don't think you would apply the same approach of stocks to real estate…would you? Or to bank accounts. Would you? Of course not. They're totally different. They don't have anything to do with each other, and neither does crypto to the stock market. We know that crypto is astonishingly volatile compared to the volatility of the stock market. It is routine for crypto prices to rise and fall 10% in a day, let alone 25% over months.
So, for you to apply such a relatively narrow bandwidth of volatility could cause you merely to sell low as you'd be forced to do right now. I don't think you bought Ethereum with the intention of selling it within a couple of months. And yet that would be what your strategy is forcing you to do at a 25% loss.
I don't think that that makes an awful lot of sense. I don't think it's what you intended or anticipated. I think you need to take a very different attitude. Recognize that extreme volatility exists in the world of crypto. This is why you need to have a long-term perspective for the investment. And most importantly, why you need to establish rebalancing parameters. If you do want to apply a stock market-esque approach to this, it would be rebalancing. If your equities are up in value over the past few months, and they are, and your crypto is down over the past few months, and it is, what a wonderful rebalancing opportunity. You sell some of the equities at a profit, and you use that money to buy Ethereum, which is below your original price.
That rebalancing will help to capture your profits, reduce your risks, lower your overall cost basis, and set the stage for bigger profits down the road. As volatility works in both directions, right? Volatility goes down dramatically. It also goes up as dramatically.
So, I think you should not necessarily change your discipline. Simply adopt a new one for this new asset class.
You can send me your question as well, just send it to AskRic@TheTAYF.com. The link is in the show notes.
Hey, we did a couple of webinars, did one yesterday and did one last Friday… both of them on crypto. If you missed both of those webinars, either or both, you can watch the replays.
The link to both of them is available in the show notes right now. Last Friday was with Matt Hogan of Bitwise, where Matt showed 32 charts on what's going on in crypto right now, and what you can expect over the next quarter and into 2025. And the one we did yesterday was with Chris Rhine of Galaxy talking about stocks that are active in the crypto space.
Really fascinating conversations. Both are free. I encourage you to check them out. Links are in the show notes.
I'm glad you're with me here on The Truth About Your Future. If you like what you're hearing, be sure to follow and subscribe to the show, wherever you get your podcasts, Apple, Spotify, YouTube, and remember to leave a review on Apple podcasts. I read them all. Never miss an episode of The Truth About Your Future. Follow and subscribe on your favorite podcast app.
I'll see you tomorrow.
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Links from today’s show:
Social Security Trust Fund: https://www.ssa.gov/policy/trust-funds-summary.html
Congressional Budget Office: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60691
Social Security Administration: http://www.ssa.gov/
Our Spot Ethereum ETFs Toolkit at DACFP.com https://dacfp.com/ethtoolkit/
10/23 Webinar - How to Factor Longevity into Your Financial Planning: https://www.thetayf.com/pages/october-2024-webinar-how-to-factor-longevity-into-your-financial-planning
9/25 Webinar Replay - Unlocking Alpha in Crypto-Equities and Beyond: https://dacfp.com/events/unlocking-alpha-in-crypto-equities-and-beyond
9/20 Webinar Replay - Q4 Crypto Outlook: What You Need to Know Now: https://dacfp.com/events/q4-crypto-outlook-what-you-need-to-know-now
9/11 Webinar Replay – Rates are Poised to Drop, Now What?: https://www.thetayf.com/pages/rates-poised-to-drop-now-what
Become Certified in Blockchain and Digital Assets: https://dacfp.com/certification/
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