Tax Tech vs. Tradition
Why Uncle Sam might be your future tax preparer
Ric Edelman: It's Thursday, February 1st. Coming up on today's show, it's tax season and we're going to talk about something coming out of the IRS this year.
But before I get to that, I want to tell you really exciting news. The Truth About Crypto, my 13th book, which launched in 2021, is now being published in Ukraine. This makes nine languages that The Truth About Crypto is now appearing. You can pick up a copy at Amazon.com or your favorite bookseller. And with the launch of the new spot bitcoin ETFs, you really need to learn about crypto more than ever.
Let's move on to tax season. It's getting underway. And well, since this is a podcast about the future, I don't want to spend a whole lot of time talking to you here about this year's tax prep issues. But I do want to tell you that the future that I predicted seven years ago is about to be here. Yeah. My 12th book, The Truth About Your Future, I talked about the future of tax preparation. I've been telling you in that book, which was a New York Times bestseller, (The Truth About Crypto was a number one Amazon bestseller), I've been telling you that one day in the not-too-distant future, you won't have to prepare your taxes anymore. Instead, I told you the IRS is going to do your taxes for you. Well, that makes a whole lot of sense, doesn't it? I mean, after all, the IRS already gets copies of your W-2s and your 1099s. They've already got the data, so why don't they fill out the forms? Why are they making you do it?
Well, baby steps toward that future are now here. This tax season, the IRS is testing its own free tax filing system. You can participate if you live in one of 12 states. And if you meet certain criteria, you've got to be a low- or moderate-income person. Your tax return also has to be pretty simple. Forget about K-1s or business income. You also have to use the standard deduction and your only sources of income can be W-2, Social Security, or unemployment. And your interest income has to be less than 1500 bucks. And if you've got any gig income, say, from driving an Uber or making money by renting out your house on Airbnb, well, you can't use the IRS program yet.
Still, despite all those limitations, the IRS says hundreds of thousands of taxpayers are going to be participating in their pilot program this year. And the program, as I said, is free. Well, sort of. You don't have to pay to use it. But the IRS says they're spending somewhere between $64 million and $250 million to operate the program. And since the IRS budget comes out of taxpayers, we're all paying for this. The states that are included in the pilot are Arizona, California, Florida, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington and Wyoming. Most of these states don't have a state income tax. It makes sense to begin the pilot there, but there are four that do: Arizona, California, Massachusetts and New York.
Each of those states is offering a state-supported tool to help you submit your state tax return. And here's something in the “no big surprise” category. The tax prep industry hates this idea. Intuit is calling this a half-baked solution and a waste of taxpayer money. Well, of course they hate the idea. If this pilot is successful, eventually the IRS will not only help all taxpayers file their tax returns for free, eventually the IRS will actually prepare the return for free. That'll put all the tax prep firms and all the software companies that sell tax preparation, like Intuit's TurboTax and H&R Block, it'll put all of them out of business. Should we care about that? I mean, well, did you care when Kodak went bust because you started taking unlimited free photos with your phone? Technological innovation means disruption, and companies that are built on old technology always lose to companies that introduce new technology.
The big question is whether tax prep ought to be handled by the IRS or not. Is it right that the IRS will tell you how much you owe in taxes? Or would it be better for you to figure that out yourself, or to hire a company to do it for you to keep this control out of the hands of the government? After all, there's an inherent conflict here. The government wants you to pay the maximum in taxes. You want to pay the minimum.
This whole thing about tax prep is going to get sorted out, but no matter how it's resolved, no matter who's preparing your return, that return is going to be produced via automation. Humans will not be involved, and that trend is already underway. No human sent you that W-2 or 1099. Your tax preparer is already using tax software to create your return. And if you do your own taxes, you're probably using tax software too. And so I predict that the IRS will, in the end, likely be the entity preparing returns for pretty much everybody in the future. One fact is certain humans will not be involved. So forget about a career as a tax preparer.
And today's college kids know that few of them are interested in a career in accounting. And in fact, three quarters of CPAs are at or near retirement age. The accounting industry is worrying about what they call a dire shortage of accountants. If you want to become a CPA, you've got to take an extra year of college. That's an extra 50 grand and an extra year of your life, and then you have to pass an exam that only half pass on their first try. And if you do pass, your first year pay as a CPA will be an average of $54,000, compared to $96,000, almost double for a first-year investment analyst.
So let me get this straight. I can spend five years in college instead of four. I can take a test that only half managed to pass. Also, I can earn half as much as other college grads who have the same skill set abilities, knowledge, intelligence as me. Accountants are supposed to be good at adding stuff up and this just doesn't add up. So it's probably good that the IRS is preparing taxes for people, because in the future, you won't be able to find anyone capable of doing it for you anyway.
You know, for years my wife Jean has said that personal finance is more personal than finance, and that's why Jean has her own weekly podcast, Self-Care with Jean Edelman. Every week, Jean helps us reflect on how we're living our lives, and she tells us how we can see people and the world around us in a more positive, caring way. From life's simple issues to our bigger questions. Jean helps us find quiet and balance by turning inward. By looking at how we live our lives, we can discover the lessons that help us cope with our daily challenges. Jean's latest episode comes out every Thursday, so you can listen today.
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