The Ghost of 2008 Returns
How today's commercial real estate market mirrors the past
Ric Edelman: It's Wednesday, January 24th and today's show is about commercial real estate. I've been warning you about the commercial real estate market for quite some time now. The fact that building owners across the country have to start refinancing their debt to new, higher interest rates at exactly the moment that their buildings are half empty, meaning they're not generating the rental income they need to justify their valuations, and they're not generating the income they need to make the new mortgage payments they're going to have to make. I've been warning you with generalities up to now, but now we're starting to see the numbers.
According to new data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, $117 billion worth of commercial mortgages are either going to be repaid or refinanced this year. Here's the good news. The problem is not as bad as it was in 2008. That's not much comfort. The fact is, we're in the beginning of a national downturn in the commercial office real estate market.
And this is not just a real estate problem. It's a banking problem because two-thirds of all the loans that are coming due this year, they're held by banks. So far, the banks are still getting their monthly payments. The delinquency rate, according to FDIC, is just 1.5% so far. But this number could skyrocket. One study says 40% of bank loans in this sector are in trouble because the banks lent more money than the buildings are currently worth.
Think about this from the borrower’s perspective. You bought a building for $100 million, borrowed $80 million to do it. Well, now you've got an $80 million loan. You've got to refinance that loan because the loan has come due, but the building has now fallen in value. It's not worth $100 million anymore. It's only worth $60 million.
Well that means you could very well just default on the loan. Well that's not just a problem for you. You lose your building. It's a problem for the bank that lent you the money. They want their $80 million back. They don't want a building that's only worth $60 million that they now have to spend money on to maintain while they're trying to sell it. And even if they do sell it, they only get back $60 million, not the $80 million that they lent. The bank could face losing 20 million bucks. And most of the banks that did all this lending, they are local and regional banks. How many of them might collapse over this?
And what about all the investors who provided all the cash that those banks lent out? This was facilitated by commercial mortgage-backed securities. You remember MBS, mortgage-backed securities. Those are the investments that all blew up in the 2008 crisis. There's $800 billion in these commercial MBS securities out there, and delinquencies are already 6%. Moody's says that of the 605 buildings that have mortgages expiring right now, a third of them won't be able to refinance either, because the properties aren't worth as much as they owe, or they no longer have enough rental income because the buildings are now half empty thanks to the work from home movement since Covid.
One of those buildings is the Sears Tower in Chicago, now called the Willis Tower. It owes $1.3 billion, and it's got to refinance in March. It's only generating income of 7% of that loan amount.
Lenders want to see 9%. Is the Willis Tower going to be able to refinance that $1.3 billion loan? We're about to find out. And that is going to tell us how the real estate industry is going to do this year and how the banks are going to do, by extension, and maybe the entire stock market. Stay tuned as we bring you the future.
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