Why Isn't Bitcoin $100,000 Yet?
Thank the basis trade
Ric Edelman: It's Monday, June 24th. Have you been to Double VISION yet? It's the last week you can do so. I created this event, oh goodness, seven years ago. This is the longest running crypto conference for financial professionals, accredited investors, advisors, RIA firms. If you've been listening to this podcast for the past couple of weeks, you know that we presented this conference in Austin earlier this month, and that we've recorded all the sessions. And they are now all available to you online. For example, the Protocol Economy. Do you even know what that is? This is the new model that's changing how we do business on a global scale. And I interviewed David Alderman, who is the research analyst at Franklin Templeton, explaining all this. We also had a session on Crypto Through the Eyes of Institutions. All the prior hesitations about crypto among institutional investors is giving way to broader adoption. And in this session, we talk about the current thinking of institutions, how they're viewing bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain companies, and the allocations they're using or developing for their portfolios. I interviewed Katherine Molnar, who's the chief investment officer of the Fairfax County Police Officers Retirement System and Michael Allegue, who's with the MassMutual investment team. Check it all out. It's just $24.99 for all 18 sessions. Watch as many or as few as you like, in any order that you want, any time that you want, but you only have this week because the videos disappear on June 30th. You get up to 10.5 CE credits. Link to it all is in the show notes.
And by the way, since I mentioned, bitcoin a couple of times, why hasn't it risen to $100,000 yet? You know, it's a really common question these days, and it's a fair one. After all, the new spot bitcoin ETFs are generating such huge daily inflows that these ETFs are collectively buying about 10,000 bitcoins a day. But the bitcoin miners are only producing 450 new bitcoins a day. That's an incredible imbalance. It's easy to conclude that when you've got massive buying into a market that has a strictly limited supply, it has to result in a huge price increase. Doesn't it? But we haven't seen that. Bitcoin's price was in the low $60,000s back in March. And that's about where it is as I talk to you about this. Three months later. How can that be? Given that we've seen tens of billions of dollars flowing into the spot bitcoin ETFs. Well, the answer is simple. If massive buys haven't been causing the price to rise, there can really only be one reason: there have been an offsetting series of sells. Or, more specifically, there's a lot of short selling in the bitcoin futures market. And indeed, the bitcoin futures shorts have set a record high. Does this mean that there's a huge bearish sentiment? That we all ought to be panicking that a bitcoin price crash is imminent? No and no. No, there's no crash coming, because there isn't bearish sentiment on a big scale. Oh, yeah, there is a big short position out there, but it's not due to bearishness. Instead, it's because hedge fund managers are very smart people. Rather than betting that bitcoin's price is going to crash, they're simply engaging in what's called a market neutral strategy. And it's making them a lot of money. It's called the basis trade. And it's gaining traction thanks to the launch of the spot bitcoin ETFs earlier this year. It's a strategy that exploits the price difference between the spot price of bitcoin and the futures market's price of bitcoin. Traders are simply buying bitcoin and simultaneously selling bitcoin futures contracts. And they're capturing the price difference between the two. This is arbitrage. It's classic. It's done in every commodities market, and hedge funds are using this arbitrage trade to generate profits. As a tiny little quick background: futures contracts allow investors to buy or sell a product, in this case bitcoin, they can buy or sell it at a future date without having to actually own the underlying asset. It's a much more cost-efficient way to have an exposure. There's a cost to this carry, and that's why futures sometimes trade at a premium to the spot price. That's what allows this trade to be profitable.
So, let's talk numbers. One published report says that there's $7.5 billion of net short futures compared to just $2 billion back in 2021. The surge in popularity for the basis trade shows the growing acceptance and integration of bitcoin into the financial markets. The rapid adoption of the strategy in crypto reflects that the market is maturing.
So, what does it mean for bitcoin's future? Well, in short, and I guess I used two puns there I shouldn't have used, bitcoin's future, and in short, anyway, what does it mean for the future of bitcoin and its price? Well, the quick answer is don't mistake bitcoin's flat price for the past several months as being a problem. Instead, consider this: despite there being such a large short position, bitcoin's prices remain largely stable. That in itself is remarkable and provides the confidence that as inflows continue from advisors and institutional investors over the next year, bitcoin's price will resume its up-and-to-the-right trajectory.
Why? Because the number of institutional investors willing to engage in this shorting activity, this basis trade, is limited. But the number of people who are interested in buying bitcoin is comparatively unlimited. I think this is all a rather bullish signal, even though shorting is normally considered bearish.
I'll see you tomorrow.
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